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Explains the "black swan" phenomenon, which is an event characterized by its unpredictability, massive impact, and the explanations used to try and make it appear less random, and explores how "black swans" throughout history have influenced civilizations, religions, and governments.
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"The acclaimed author of the influential bestseller The Black Swan, Nicholas Nassim Taleb takes a next big step with a deceptively simple concept: the "antifragile." Like the Greek hydra that grows two heads for each one it loses, people, systems, and institutions that are antifragile not only withstand shocks, they benefit from them. In a modern world dominated by chaos and uncertainty, Antifragile is a revolutionary vision from one of the most subversive...
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The phrase "skin in the game" is one we have often heard but have rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it's also an astonishingly complex worldview that applies to all aspects of our lives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb pulls on everything from Antaeus the Giant to Hammurabi to Donald Trump to Seneca to the ethics of disagreement to create a tapestry for understanding our world in a brand new way. Among his insights:...
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William Byers is professor emeritus of mathematics and statistics at Concordia University in Montreal. He is the author of How Mathematicians Think: Using Ambiguity, Contradiction, and Paradox to Create Mathematics (Princeton).
Why absolute certainty is impossible in science
In today's unpredictable and chaotic world, we look to science to provide certainty and answers-and often blame it when things go wrong. The Blind Spot reveals why our faith...
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"Build the skills for determining appropriate error limits for quantities that matter with this essential toolkit. Understand how to handle a complete project and how uncertainty enters into various steps. Provides a systematic, worksheet-based process to determine error limits on measured quantities, and all likely sources of uncertainty are explored, measured or estimated. Features instructions on how to carry out error analysis using Excel and...
Summary
This program explores why is measurement important in science? Why is uncertainty inevitable in scientific measurements? The importance of multiple measurements and of averaging the results, how to estimate the range of uncertainty in a measurement, accuracy and precision, how to manage uncertainty whenn adding, subtracting, multiplying or dividing measurements and expressing uncertainty in standard form. The program concludes with a practical exercise:...